Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
